How large is our country's steel stocks? The answer is to build "371 bird's nests and 111 CCTV buildings."
PE sector consternation 360-fold return Early-stage investment risk aversion Debt-generating debt-basketing "Suck gold" threshold Millions of start-up trusts are virtually extinct Data from China Steel Association show that as of June 1, 2012, the country's 26 major markets were top 5 Steel stocks have a social inventory of 15.615 million tons.
The 21st Century Network projected that the current high-speed railway line could be rebuilt 40 times, taking into account the current 200 million surplus steel production capacity.
In the context of the unresolved debt crisis in Europe, real estate sluggishness, and the frequent occurrence of “double reverse” investigations on steel exports, the new 4 trillion economic stimulus or “virtual fire”. However, the capacity growth rate of the steel industry remains high, and high inventory has become the “unfortunate pain” in the minds of various companies.
Steel stocks can build 371 nests According to the statistics of China Iron and Steel Association, as of June 1, 2012, the five major steel products of 26 major markets in China (rebar, wire rod, hot rolled coil, cold rolled coil and medium thick Board) social inventory of 15.615 million tons, compared with the same period last year (June 3, 2011), the total inventory was 1.19 million tons higher, and the total stock of rebar and wire rod was 1.749 million tons higher than the same period of last year, and the increase continued to increase. .
The continuous increase in production capacity has directly led to the high inventory of steel products.
According to relevant information in the 21st Century Network, the amount of steel used in the external steel structure of the “Bird's Nest” was 42,000 tons. If these stocks are used to build the “Bird's Nest”, 371 can be built; the amount of steel used in the CCTV new building is 140,000 tons. , then these stocks can build 111 CCTV buildings.
According to the "Xinjiang Iron and Steel" data, the total amount of steel used in the entire high-speed railway in our country is about 5 million tons, and the capacity that exceeds 200 million yuan can rebuild our country's current high-speed railway line 40 times. Prior to this, stakeholders of the Research Institute for Economic Development of the Metallurgical Industry revealed that the domestic consumption and export demand was only around 700 million tons, compared with the production capacity of over 200 million tons of over 900 million tons of steel at the end of last year.
Excessive pressure has been so great, but the operating rate of steel companies is still about 90%. Many of the outdated production capacity to be phased out are local taxpayers, and local governments are reluctant to eliminate them, so it can be a day or a day. A steel pipe factory staff said to 21st Century Network.
“In fact, no matter whether the production is stopped or not, it is a state of loss. However, once the blast furnace is shut down, the production cost is very high. In addition, the overcapacity market competition is very fierce. After the production shutdown, the downstream customers will soon be competed against the company, even if the production customers are resumed. It is also very likely to lose."
The rapid growth of China's steel production capacity also dates back to the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" period. During the “10th Five-Year Plan” and “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” period, the average annual growth rate of crude steel production in China was 22.6% and 12% respectively. In the past April alone, crude steel production reached 60.575 million tons, which was an increase of 1.527 million tons or 2.60% over the same period of last year.
Subsequently, the issue of excess domestic steel production capacity became more and more prominent, but the output of steel still failed to stop growing. According to estimates by China United Iron and Steel Network, in 2011, China had 63 new blast furnaces and a total of 85.59 million tons of ironmaking capacity.
In 2012, the country finally decided to “smile” the backward production capacity and formulated the “enhanced energy-saving and emission-reduction efforts to promote industrial upgrading” policy, but the local government has discounted the implementation.
Demand continues to be weak and the corresponding high output of steel production is the current demand for the steel industry continues to be low.
According to figures from the National Bureau of Statistics, the apparent domestic crude steel consumption in January-April exceeded 200 million tons, reaching 219 million tons, an increase of 0.5%. However, if one day is considered more than last year in February of this year, the apparent consumption of crude steel will still be a negative growth from January to April this year.
In the steel industry's collective "winter" situation, people have also lowered their demand for steel in the future.
In the "12th Five-Year Plan" development plan for the steel industry, domestic oriented consumption of crude steel in 2015 is about 750 million tons, and the average annual increase in crude steel consumption is only 4%.
“On the one hand, downstream demand is weak. On the other hand, as the upstream iron ore, coke prices continue to rise, and these rising costs affect the efficiency,” said Wang Li, an analyst at Zhonghong Research.
It is understood that the real estate development industry has always been an industry with a large amount of steel, and its steel demand accounts for about 60% of the total demand. However, from the real estate perspective, the cumulative growth in real estate investment in real estate from January to April was 23.18% year-on-year, which was a slowdown of 3.86 percentage points from 27.04% in January-March. Wang Li said that at present, the real estate industry continues to be in the downward channel.
From the aspect of infrastructure, the capital issue is the main bottleneck restricting the construction of railways. Due to the lack of funds, railway investment continues to decline. Accumulated railway investment from January to April totaled 43.6% year-on-year. Infrastructure investment such as railways may not be able to rise above expectations in the short to medium term.
In addition, the sharp decline in export output also hit the steel industry.
In May, China’s iron and steel industry suffered three trade remedy investigations, two of which were anti-dumping investigations initiated by Turkey and Brazil for weld pipe and flat-rolled steel, and the other was a “double reverse” investigation initiated by Canada for steel pipe piles.
According to statistics from customs statistics, China exported 4.667 million tons of steel in April, a decrease of 361,000 tons from the previous month, a decrease of 7.2% from the previous month and a year-on-year decrease of 2.3%;
Analysts said that in May, the export orders volume index including steel producers and steel exchanges continued to fall, both in the contraction range, and the amount of steel exports in the latter period may continue to shrink.
